IDEOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF BOLSONARISM IN THE 2022 ELECTIONS

Institutional Defeat and the Rise of the Far Right in Brazil

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of Jair Bolsonaro’s government on the ideological foundations of Bolsonarism. The hypothesis is that, throughout his term, the former president consolidated support among more radical segments while losing the backing of less extreme groups. Based on data from the 2022 Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB), the analysis categorizes Bolsonaro’s supporters into three profiles: loyalists (supported him in both elections), regretful (supported him only in 2018), and converts (supported him only in 2022). Using variables related to issues debated in Brazilian society—public security, expansion of rights, control of public institutions, welfare policies, and reproductive rights—the study examines how these categories reflect ideological differences within Bolsonarism. The results indicate the persistence of conservative values among the most loyal supporters, while the regretful group shows greater alignment with progressive agendas.