The impact of economic instability on credit concessions: the case of the Covid-19 pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21680/2176-9036.2024v16n2ID36721Keywords:
Covid-19; Credit Issuance Volume; Economic Impact.Abstract
Purpose: This research aims to analyze the impacts of the economic instability caused by Covid-19 on the volume of credit issuance in Brazil.
Methodology: The research methodology employed time series regression models in the Brazilian market and was based on historical values of macroeconomic variables. The study period spans from February 2013 to April 2023, divided into pre-pandemic (02/2013-02/2020) and pandemic (03/2020-04/2023) periods.
Results: It was observed that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on credit issuance volume was minor when controlling for other macroeconomic characteristics. There are indications that only the year 2020 exhibited more significant variations, with the average during the 2020 to 2023 period being not so different from the pre-pandemic period.
Contributions of the Study: This study suggests that the crisis had only a temporary effect and that the economic measures taken during this period may have contributed to the recovery, indicating preparation for future pandemics that experts expect to occur.
Downloads
References
Andrezo, A., & Lima, I. (2002). Mercado financeiro: aspectos históricos e conceituais. São Paulo: Pioneira.
Araújo, A., Lustosa, P., & Paulo, E. (2018). A ciclicidade da provisão para créditos de liquidação duvidosa sob três diferentes modelos contábeis: Reino Unido, Espanha e Brasil. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, v. 29, n. 76, p. 97-113. doi:https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x201804490
Assaf Neto, A. (2001). Mercado Financeiro. São Paulo: Atlas.
Banco Central do Brasil - Bacen. (Junho de 2018). Indicador de Custo do Crédito: Nota Metodológica. Fonte: Nota Técnica do Banco Central do Brasil nº 45: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/notastecnicas/2018nt45custocred.pdf. Access in August 21, 2023.
Barros, L. A., Silva, C. K., & Oliveira, R. (2021). Presença Estatal no Mercado de Crédito: o papel dos bancos públicos e do crédito direcionado na crise de 2008. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, v. 32, n. 87, p. 461-475. doi:https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202108930
Berger, A., & Demirgüç-Kun, A. (2021). Banking research in the time of COVID-19. Journal of Financial Stability, v. 57. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2021.100939
Ҫolak, G., & Öztekin, Ö. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on bank lending around the world. Journal of Banking and Finance, v. 133. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106207
CNN Brasil. (May 2023). “Novas pandemias poderão ocorrer em breve e precisamos estar preparados”, diz diretor do Butantan. Source: https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/novas-pandemias-poderao-ocorrer-em-breve-e-precisamos-estar-preparados-diz-diretor-do-butantan/. Access in February 08, 2024.
D'Aurizio, L., Oliviero, T., & Romano, L. (2015). Family firms, soft information and bank lending in a financial crisis. Journal of Corporate Finance, v. 33, p. 279-292. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.01.002
De Haas, R., & Van Horen, N. (2013). Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis. The Review of Financial Studies, v. 26, n. 1, p. 244-285. doi:10.1093/rfs/hhs113
Freitas, M. C. (2009). Os efeitos da crise global no Brasil: aversão ao risco e preferência pela liquidez no mercado de crédito. Estudos Avançados, v. 23, n. 66, p. 125-145. doi:https://doi.org/10.1590/S0103-40142009000200011
Fucidji, J., & Prince, D. (2009). Determinantes do Crédito Bancário: uma Análise com Dados em Painel para as Maiores Instituições. Análise Econômica, v. 27, n. 52, p. 233-251. doi:https://doi.org/10.22456/2176-5456.6066
Ivashina, V., & Scharfstein, D. (2010). Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008. Journal of Financial Economics, v. 97, p. 319-338. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.12.001
Kapan, T., & Minoiu, C. (2018). Balance sheet strength and bank lending: Evidence from the global financial crisis financial crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance, v. 92, p. 35-50. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.04.011
Khan, S. U. (2022). Financing constraints and firm-level responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence. Research in International Business and Finance, v. 59. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101545
Mendonça, M., Medrano, L., & Sachsida, A. (2010). Efeitos da política monetária na economia brasileira: resultados de um procedimento de identificação agnóstica. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico (PPE), v. 40, n. 3, p. 367-394. Source: https://repositorio.ipea.gov.br/bitstream/11058/5094/1/PPE_v40_n03_Efeitos.pdf
Ministério da Indústria, Comércio Exterior e Serviços. (2020). Comexstat. Fonte: ComexVis: http://comexstat.mdic.gov.br/pt/comex-vis. Access in August 21, 2023.
Mota, C. V. (12 de Março de 2020). Coronavírus: como a queda da bolsa afeta a 'economia real'? São Paulo, SP, Brasil. Source: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-51859307#:~:text=Um%20dos%20principais%20impactos%20%C3%A9,e%20a%20renda%22%2C%20avalia. Access in August 21, 2023.
Nelson, C., & Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 10, n. 2, p. 139-162. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(82)90012-5
Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica, v. 57, n. 6, p. 1361-1401. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/1913712
Reed, E., & Gill, E. (1994). Bancos Comerciais e Múltiplos. São Paulo: Makron.
Rogerio Silveira, M., & Teixeira, M. (2009). O papel da confiança na concessão de crédito para empresas em recuperação. Revista de Administração Mackenzie, v. 10, n. 1, p. 58-88. doi:https://doi.org/10.1590/S1678-69712009000100004
Sääskilahti, J. (2016). Local bank competition and small business lending after the onset of the financial crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance, v. 69, p. 37-51. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.04.004
Segura, L., Molini, L., & Ferreira, C. (2016). Análise de Crédito: um estudo exploratório sobre a sua aplicação nos setores industrial e financeiro. Redeca, Revista Eletrônica Do Departamento De Ciências Contábeis do Departamento De Atuária E Métodos Quantitativos, v. 3, n. 2, p. 58-76. doi:https://doi.org/10.23925/2446-9513.2016v3i2p58-76
Smith, R. P. (1999). Unit roots and all that: the impact of time-series methods on macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Methodology, v. 6, n. 2, p. 159-169. doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/13501789900000016
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 REVISTA AMBIENTE CONTÁBIL - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish in this magazine agree with the following terms:
Authors keep the copyrights and concede the right of its first publication to the magazine. The work piece must be simultaneously licensed on the Creative Commons Attribution Licence which allows the paper sharing, and preserves both the author identity and the right of first publication to this magazine.
Authors are authorized to assume additional contracts separately, to not-exclusively distribution of the paper version published in this magazine (e.g.: publish in institutional repository or as a book chapter), with the author identity recognition and its first publication in this magazine.
Authors are permitted and stimulated to publish and distribute their papers online (e.g.: in institutional repository or on their personal webpage), considering it can generate productive alterations, as well as increase the impact and the quotations of the published paper.
Creative Commons - Atribuição-NãoComercial-SemDerivações 4.0 Internacional.