Projection and evaluation of the physical results resulting from the rise in sea level in the year 2100 in the urban area of Grossos

Abstract

The present study aimed to carry out a situational analysis of the city of Grossos in relation to sea level projections for 2100 based on the IPCC AR6. To this end, sea level modeling was carried out in a static hydraulic bathtub-type model, with an altimetric reference standardized at normal altitude and adjusted to the local level (zero on the Areia Branca tide ruler). To represent the terrain, it was made in MDT, using digital stereoscopic UAV images and adjusted to the Brazilian Geodetic System. The results demonstrate that the urban area is predominantly between 2.44 and 12.92 m in altitude, beyond the reach of current maximum tides and will have between 3.18 and 8.10% of its territory affected by 2100. Therefore, it can be concluded that the city is in a safe area with a relatively low risk of future flooding from rising sea levels.