Análise de chuvas intensas para o município de Juiz de Fora (MG)

Intense rain analysis for the municipality of Juiz de Fora (MG)

Abstract

The evolution of human settlement marked a transition in which water became a cornerstone to enable various human activities. With the advancement urbanization, over time trends in the behavior of rainfall and flow time series have been observed. Thus, the measurement of rainfall in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency is essential for the planning of hydraulic structures and their constant updating. Considering this, the purpose of this study was to analyze rainfall time series for the municipality of Juiz de Fora (MG) using statistical tests and to review the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) Equation valid for the location. With the collection of sub-daily data from INMET station 83692 and the accessing trends using the Mann-Kendall test, the increasing trend in rainfall intensities for the municipality was confirmed, considering some critical durations analyzed. A new IDF equation was then adjusted using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, with the GEV distribution being the best fit. The results showed that, for durations longer than 60 minutes, the adjusted IDF equation yielded higher values in 50% of the evaluated durations, altering the parameters for sizing hydraulic structures and municipal urban planning.