Ecosystem Services, Carbon Sequestration in an Area Susceptible to Desertification: A Study in the North-Central Region of Ceará, Brazil

Abstract

This study analyzed the carbon sequestration potential in different land cover classes in a Desertification-Susceptible Area (ASD 1) in the North-Central region of Ceará, using remote sensing and spectral indices. Landsat 8 images were used to calculate NDVI, PRI, sPRI, and CO₂ Flux, aiming to estimate carbon sequestration efficiency. Land use and land cover classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm, resulting in six classes: Water Body, Urban Area, Exposed Soil, Agriculture/Herbaceous Vegetation, Shrub Caatinga, and Arboreal Caatinga. The results indicated that Arboreal Caatinga (53% of the area) and Shrub Caatinga (33%) showed the highest CO₂ Flux values, especially during the rainy season. In contrast, Exposed Soil (10% of the area) and Agriculture/Herbaceous Vegetation (1%) exhibited significantly reduced capacities. Non-parametric statistical tests (Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn) confirmed significant differences between class medians. It was concluded that climatic seasonality and vegetation cover type are determinants for carbon sequestration dynamics, reinforcing the need for conservation policies and sustainable management to mitigate degradation and enhance ecosystem services.