Susceptibility to heat sources: an analysis for the state of Ceará

Abstract

This study aims to identify the causes of fire activity in the state of Ceará and propose an Index of Susceptibility to Heat Spots, Fires, and Burnings through principal component factor analysis. The data used are of secondary nature and were obtained from various sources, covering agricultural, economic, and social aspects. The results indicate that indicators related to agricultural development influence municipal susceptibility, such as the number of rural properties, the area allocated to crops, pastures, and livestock herds. The replacement of vegetative cover with crops or pastures has a significant impact on fire activity. Out of the 184 municipalities analyzed, only three have high vulnerability, while 121 have medium-low risk, indicating moderate fragility to fire activity. The results can assist in planning strategies for the prevention, mitigation, and recovery of degraded areas, reducing risks for the most vulnerable populations.