Analysis of economic viability, under risk conditions, of the finishing cattle feedlot system in the state of São Paulo, Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21680/2176-9036.2022v14n1ID23517Keywords:
Beef Cattle, Feedlot, Economic viability, Sensitivity analysisAbstract
Purpose: Evaluate the sensitivity and economic viability of the feedlot system used for fattening cattle using reference a property located in the northern region of the state of São Paulo, Brazil.
Methodology: We used a multidimensional approach to evaluate the sensitivity. The economic result was analyzed through cash flow, the net present value (NPV) being the viability indicator. The risks were incorporated with the Monte Carlo simulation for the prices of feed, purchase and sale of animals that were the discrete random variables, the value measure was the NPV, calculated with the minimum attractiveness rate of 7,55% per semester and the probabilities were estimated by relative frequency.
Results: The probability of feedlot being an economically attractive activity was 30,2%, consequently the system was not viable in 69,8%. In the context of sensitivity, the feedlot was more vulnerable to fluctuations in the sale price, the 1% increase in the price fed cattle of generates on increased of 46% in NPV, being followed by feeder cattle price, the 1% increase in the feeder cattle price leads to a 29% reduced in NPV, and by the feeding price, the 1% increase in the feeding price leads to a 12% decreased in NPV.
Contributions of the Study: The results found in this research may support new evaluations in representative samples, incorporate the studies on this topic and assist decision makers.
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